Impact of Successful Assassinations on Political Regime and Wars

My memory has been weakening recently. As an attempt to remedy this, I'll start writing down on this blog what I learn from reading papers, books, news media, etc.

Empirical findings from Jones and Olken (2008) "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War":

When an assassination is attempted against the national leader...

1. If the dictator is killed, democratization is likely to follow.

2. It does not matter for subsequent political regime change if a leader in democracy is killed.

3. If the leader facing a small-scale war (less than 1000 battle-related death per year) is killed, the war is likely to be intensified.

4. It does not matter for the onset of a war whether the leader is killed.

5. If the leader facing a large-scale war (1000 deaths or more per year) is killed, the war is likely to be terminated.