Berlin has at least four different areas of boho, alternative, street youth culture. Prenzlauer Berg, northeastern Berlin, is one of such areas. The Time Out Berlin guidebook says that those really cutting-edge already left this area, but Kastanienalle, a street running to the southwest from Eberswalder Strasse U-bahn station, is full of independent boutiques, cafes, and graffiti on houses built at the turn of the 20th century.
When my friend and I were walking along the Spree river, the Berlin Cathedral suddenly appeared on our left, interrupting our conversation with its solemn appearance.
Berlin's Holocaust Memorial turns out to be a maze. Once you walk into the grid of concrete blocks, you are lost because these slabs are much higher than your height in the central area of the memorial premise.
It seems none of the top surfaces and the side walls of these slabs is exactly in parallel. Each concrete slab has no frill on it. They are simply immaculate concrete blocks. Such simplicity and abstractness paradoxically tells visitors the graveness of what this memorial commemorates.
I visited Oslo University to present my research. Before dinner with people there, I had some time to explore the city. I headed to the critically acclaimed Oslo Opera House.
I was hungry while I was walking in the city centre of Oslo. I just wanted to bite a tasty, crunchy baked good. If I were in Stockholm, this would be almost impossible as people in Stockholm seem to hate crunchiness in baked confectionery. In Oslo, a cafe called Kaffebrenneriet made my desire fulfilled with its tasty, crunchy banana cake.
Randomized control trials (RCTs for short) have been the fad in development economics research during the past five years or so. One usual concern for this research methodology is that it's ethically incorrect. Usually, the trials evaluate the effect of offering poor people in poor countries with something that is supposed to be good, such as medicine, money, savings accounts, etc. And this offer is given to people randomly selected. So there are people who won't get any offer like this. Such people may be offended.
In Ghana, at least, this concern appears to be minimal. See this post from the blog of IPA, a non-profit organization founded by Dean Karlan, a leading development economist who made a fame from his RCT research in development economics. (He's actually coming to my workplace next month.)
According to Steve Levitt, it is a paper that
A) teaches some important facts,
B) has a clever idea,
C) is believable, and
D) makes the world a better place.
I've done a bit of surveys on the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on infant mortality. For the uninitiated, ITNs are known to be effective for preventing child deaths due to malaria infection. ITNs do not just protect you from mosquito bites that can transmit malaria parasite into your body. They also kill mosquitos that touch the ITNs as the bed net fabric contains insecticide. As malaria is transmitted only through mosquitos, ITNs reduce the risk of malaria infection in these two ways.
But how much do they reduce infant mortality in a village in Africa?
To identify randomized control trials of high quality on this topic, I look at the Cochrane Review (Lengeler (2004)), which identifies the list of such trials with no bias in the estimates. There are five studies looking at the impact on child mortality, and Lengeler (2004) concludes that ITNs reduce child mortality by 5.5 deaths per 1,000 children.
However, I'm interested in infant mortality (the death rate among those aged under 12 months old), not in child mortality (the death rate for children under the age of 5 years). Also, it is not clear to me whether these estimates refer to the intention-to-treat effect (the impact of distributing ITNs) or the effect of the actual use of ITNs. So I look at the original studies.
It turns out that one study looks at insecticide-treated curtains. Another looks at the impact of treating bed nets with insecticide (because the study is conducted in The Gambia, where the use of bed nets is common). The third study does not report infant mortality. So only two studies actually evaluate the impact on infant mortality. And the intervention they evaluate is actually the distribution of ITNs to a community, not the actual use of ITNs by villagers (though both studies find that the usage rate of distributed ITNs is rather high).
Binka et al. (1996) report that, in Kassena-Nankana district in Ghana, before distributing ITNs, the mortality among children 6 to 11 months old is 49.7 per 1,000 for treated villages while it is 55.1 per 1,000 for control villages. After the intervention, 73.2 for the treated and 90.3 for the control. The difference-in-difference estimate yields a reduction by 11.7 per 1,000. In addition, the authors report that the mortality for children aged 1 to 5 months is comparable between the treated and the control before the intervention (they don't report exact numbers) and that it becomes 77.4 for the treated and 100.7 for the control, implying that the impact is a reduction of 23.3 deaths per 1,000. Combining these figures, the impact on infant mortality is 35 deaths per 1,000, much higher than the effect for all the children under the age of 5 years concluded by Lengeler (2004).
The other study, Phillips-Howard et al. (2003), reports a reduction of infant mortality by 31 per 1,000 due to the distribution of ITNs in Asembo and Gem areas in western Kenya, which is surprisingly similar to what Binka et al. (1996) find. This similarity may be explained by the fact that malaria is endemic (ie. there is risk of infection throughout the year) in both study sites.
By the way, Hawley et al. (2003), another piece of paper by the same research team as Phillips-Howard et al. (2003), reports the reduction of child mortality by similar magnitude in villages without ITNs but near those villages with ITNs distributed. This finding suggests that the main mechanism through which ITNs reduce child mortality is not the protection of children (and pregnant mothers, as malaria infection during pregnancy can cause the malfunctioning of placenta and thus reduce the birth weight of newborns, which increases the risk of infant death) by bed nets but the eradication of mosquitos by insecticide.
There are three ways of finding a place to live in Stockholm (and other cities in Sweden): buy a place to live, make a queue for renting an apartment directly from the owner, and find someone who wants to sublet his or her apartment.
From what I hear from Swedes, the government encourages people to follow the first option. The supply of apartments for rent is severely discouraged due to the rent regulation. Rent is set according to the average cost of building an apartment in the area, nothing to do with demand for apartments.
The second option, making a queue, is infeasible for foreigners like myself. Those with their Swedish social security number or personnummer (everyone living in Sweden, Swedish nationals or not, must have one) can put themselves in a queue by paying 275 Swedish krona per year (about 26 euro), which by the way includes 25 percent VAT tax. Among those who are interested in a particular apartment for rent, the first 30 in the queue are allowed to have a look, and among those who do want to rent this apartment, the first in the queue is chosen as the tenant. On average, it takes five years to rent an apartment this way. Unless your Swedish parents put you in the queue long before you actually need to rent an apartment, it is impossible to find a place to live this way.
The last option, and effectively the only one for foreigners, is usually offered by Swedish tenants who need to go abroad for a certain period of time. It's unusual that such Swedes will stay abroad for more than a year. Therefore, the subletting contract usually lasts at most one year. So you need to move around Stockholm once in every year.
It seems like there is a political philosophy in Sweden which says that renting an apartment creates income inequality, which is nothing but evil. It is so anachronistic in the age of people moving around globally.
Anyway, the last option is what I took last weekend. There is an online real estate agency specializing in subletting, Bostad Direkt. (There appear to be many others of this kind, but only this one, it seems, has an English version of the list). The list of apartments for sublet can be viewed for free. But to find out the contact detail, you need to pay nearly 700 krona (67 euro) for the subscription lasting 45 days. I wanted to move in to an area called Hammarby Sjöstad. I've been browsing the list of apartments for sublet in this area since January, and couldn't find any with a reasonable amount of rent and a reasonable amount of contract duration (ie. at least 1 year) until early April. The first apartment that I saw was an excellent one. But the tenant, a Peruvian who broke up with his Swedish girlfriend a year ago and that is why he is subletting this spacious apartment, suddenly became out of reach on the day we would sign the contract. The second apartment that I saw is perfect but the fact that it lacks a bathtub. During the long, cold winter in Stockholm, taking a bath makes a lot of difference to someone from a country of bath culture. But there's no other option. I need to leave from my current apartment this August (because it's also a sublet), and there is absolutely no guarantee that I will find another apartment in this area by August. I may end up in a suburb of Stockholm where there is only one supermarket and nothing else (which is more or less true for all the suburbs in Stockholm). So I took this apartment in which I can stay until July 1st next year.
Since the contract with my previous apartment requires a 60-day advance notice of termination, I end up paying 2 months of rent for the apartment which I do not live in. And moving my stuff by truck costs about 2400 krona. Packing (and unpacking) all of my belongings and cleaning the apartment to leave costs two weeks. And all this will be repeated every year.
That's life in Stockholm.
Caution: If you are not an economist (or a social scientist of quantitative type), please skip this post.
Read Deaton (1997) (pages 80-83) to review the merit of running quantile regression.
1. Uncover the heteroskedasticity in the error term.
2. Figure out the shape of the conditional distribution (such as income conditional on age).
3. Obtain a more efficient estimator than OLS when the error term does not follow the normal distribution.
There is a concise survey of quantile regression in economics: Roger Koenker and Kevin F. Hallock (2001).
For an instrumental variables estimation of quantile regression, see Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005). For a method to estimate the the impact of a regressor on the unconditional distribution of the dependent variable, see Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2007).
Spring finally came to Stockholm today, because the wind is not freezing anymore and the night temperature does not go below 5 degrees. A coat is no longer necessary even at night. And we have 15 hours of daytime right now.
For dinner with today's seminar speaker, we went to Tabbouli, a great Lebanese restaurant in Stockholm. This is my fourth visit to the restaurant, and the food is always good.
They serve Lebanese wine only (with exception of a couple of South African for some reason). We tried Château Ksara's red wine, and I liked this wine a lot. As I don't have good vocabulary for describing the taste of wine, I just let you read the description of the wine by Ksara itself (a pdf file). I also tried a cup of Lebanese coffee after dinner, which was brilliant with cardamon flavor. (Here's how to brew Lebanese coffee.)
If you don't know what to order because you're not familiar with Lebanese cuisine, just order the set menu at the back of the front page of the menu. That fills your stomach completely.
The paper's abstract is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2008.01.008.
Consider a village in a developing country where households engage in bilateral insurance schemes with directly connected households (relatives or friends, for example). If a household deviates from the insurance scheme (ie. fails to transfer money to directly connected households that have negative income shocks), the victim household will tell such behavior to connected households who in turn terminate the insurance scheme with the deviating household as a punishment.
The question is what aspects of the household network characterizes a stable household network, that is, a network in which no household has incentive to deviate from the bilateral insurance schemes.
Denote by q the number of links that the victim's information is passed through. For example, q equals two if the victim tells its directly connected households which in turn tell their own directly connected households, but the information does not spread beyond that.
Then the stable network is characterized by the maximum length of the smallest cycle connecting any three households in the network being q+2.
Why? Suppose household i fails to transfer money to household j. Household j tells its suffering to its connected households with the path length of less than or equal to q. These informed households cut the link to household i. Since the length of the smallest cycle of any three households in the network is at most q+2, the information from household j reaches all the households with (direct or indirect) links both to i and j. As a result, household j will be cut off from the network that includes household i, by deviating from the insurance scheme. A smaller network yields a lower payoff (intuitively, pooling income risk among more households provides better insurance against negative income shocks). Therefore, household i has no incentive to deviate, which means that the household network is stable.
Finish revising the African democracy paper and submit it to a journal. It took more than 6 months after the first rejection.
Revise the African democracy paper.
Join a birthday party held by a PhD student of my Institute at his apartment in the evening.
Revise the African democracy paper.
Attend a seminar.
Book flight tickets for the business trip to UK next month.
Meet a PhD student to talk about his research ideas.
Resume the long overdue revision of the Africa-democracy paper.
Prepare the presentation later today.
Give a talk on the climate project at my own department's seminar series with my colleague. After that, discuss with my colleagues the comments we received during the talk.
Prepare for tomorrow's presentation on the climate project.
It's Easter Monday, but this kind of thing does not matter to researchers, especially those without a family and/or coming from Asia like myself.
I stayed in room 504 of the Bristol Hotel in Frankfurt from 10 to 12 April, 2009. It was one of the most pleasant hotels I've ever stayed at.
The hotel is the least expensive one of those listed in Wallpaper* City Guide for Frankfurt (70 euro per night for a small single room, including breakfast). Online booking on its website is very easy and smooth. The email confirmation message says, "A cancellation free of charge is possible until day of arrival, 4 pm."
I arrived in the late morning, but it was no problem for me to check in (I thought I should wait until around 2 pm for check-in). My room was even upgraded to a larger single room.
The bedroom is furnished pleasantly with minimalist design, featuring raindrop-shaped door knobs and hooks for hanging clothes on the wall. The bathroom has a removable shower head and a designer wash basin, with a pitch-white bin by Koziol (there is no shower curtain or bath tub, though). It would be perfect if the bedroom has a kettle for brewing tea. But with good design, such tiny details of convenience do not matter much.
The entrance hall is also well-designed, complete with cow-skin couches and electro music of good quality in the background. The hotel bar serves good food.
The breakfast room, open after 6:30 am, faces the hotel's courtyard garden with lush green tree leaves through large windows, serving not only continental but also English/American breakfast, which is important for someone like me who needs to eat plenty of food in the morning. Food is decent, so are tea bags (Tchibo Coffee Service's Pure Tea Selection).
Wireless broadband connection is for free. Even if you don't have your own laptop, there are two computer terminals in the lobby, available for free. The front desk also lends you a mini laptop by Acer to be used in your bedroom if you deposit your credit card (but again for free of charge). I don't have a laptop and don't intend to email during my stay. But after the amazing experience at Cocoon, I feel like emailing a friend of mine to tell my excitement. The Bristol Hotel just makes my desire feasible for free of charge.
The location is excellent, too. Just a five minute walk away from an U-Bahn station (if you walk via platform 24 of Frankfurt Hbf station). Five minutes of a further walk takes you to airport coach stops on Mannheimer Strasse.
Finally, the hotel staff is all friendly. When I check out, it takes a bit of time for my credit card to be recognized. The receptionist apologizes, a rarity outside Japan.
I'll definitely stay at this hotel if I visit Frankfurt again.
These are not the most famous ones in Frankfurt, but I didn't have time to visit every skyscraper.
01
02
03
04
05
01 Westhafen Tower, viewed from outside the Bristol Hotel
02 A view on Mainzer Landstrasse
03 Eurotower, viewed from an exit of Willy-Brandt-Platz U-Bahn station
04 Frankfurt's skyscrapers viewed from Untermainbrucke bridge
05 Lindner Hotel & Residence Main Plaza
Born and bred in Tokyo, the view of skyscrapers makes me somehow feel calm. Another reason why I kind of feel uneasy in Stockholm, a city without skyscrapers of any significance.
Everybody tells you Frankfurt is a boring city. That is not true if you are into club music.
Located about 10 minutes away by taxi to the east of the city center, the Cocoon nightclub is said to be one of the best nightclubs in the world (UK's club music magazine DJmag ranks it at the 11th in the 2009 edition of its worldwide nightclub ranking). On the date of my arrival to Frankfurt to visit friends of mine, Monika Kruse, a German minimal techno DJ whose play I've long wanted to experience live, happens to be scheduled to play at Cocoon. There is no reason why I should not go to this club.
And it turns out to be one of the best night clubbing experiences ever. First, the interior of the club. Usually, a night club is rather scruffy. At best, the dance floor room is just a big box. Cocoon's decor is really elaborate. Cocoon-shaped holes in the wall act as a sofa space for chilling out. A balcony in the dance floor room, also shaped like a cocoon, plays a role of the DJ booth, allowing every dancing head to see DJs on the deck. The dance floor has several layers of round-shaped platforms, allowing those seriously dancing to be not interrupted by those just walking from one end of the room to the other. Outside the dance floor is a chill-out space looking like a stylish, trendy bar, a rarity for a truly musically-oriented nightclub.
The bar seems to serve alcohol of good quality, as my shot of tequila is flawless. Around half past midnight, Monika Kruse appears on the white cocoon DJ booth which reflects the projected computer graphic movies along with the surrounding walls of the dance floor. And, most importantly, the club has an impeccable sound system with excellent acoustic, especially for high-pitched sound. Most nightclubs, even those boasting the good sound system like Fabric in London, have the acoustic ill-suited for high-pitched sound. Here in Cocoon, every bit of high-pitched rhythms can be felt clearly. With Monika Kruse's superb mix of minimal techno music, I cannot help but feel euphoric.
Sorry for no photo. I don't bring a camera to a night club because the camera in a pocket is annoying while I'm dancing.
Buying tickets for U-bahn, Frankfurt's metro, is horribly tricky for first-timers. Here's what I learned from my friends living there.
For a single ticket within the city center, enter 97 by using number keys. Then press the green button with letters "97 Kurzstrechke". Then pay 1.50 euro.
For a one-day travel card, enter 5000 by using number keys. Then press the yellow, second-to-top button with letters "Tageskarte". Then pay 5.80 euro.
Here's a booklet in English, which says you don't need to enter 97 for a single ticket within the city. I don't know which is correct.
If this is too complicated, forget buying a ticket and you'll run a (rather small) risk of paying the penalty 40 euro if you encounter a ticket inspector. (There's no ticket barrier.)
Have a discussion with my colleagues on the presentation of our climate project next Tuesday.
Plan a business trip to UK (Edinburgh, Nottingham, and London) next month.
Learn from the RA that there are some problems regarding the data entry work. Figure out how to solve them and give her new instructions.
Have a chat with a PhD student who took my course last year about his research.
Have a chat with another PhD student about our possible joint research. And read papers relevant for this.
Have a chat with my colleague on our climate project, run some regressions to test some ideas we discuss.
Brush up on my math skills.
Submit the referee report.
Have lunch with my colleagues to talk about our climate project.
Work on the climate project.
A brief chat with a PhD student about our possible joint research.
Ask an RA for data entry, which is necessary for the climate project.
(Photo source: Cassina's official Japanese website)
A desk designed by Charlotte Perriand in 1972.
Write a referee report.
Email replies to several people in connection to my work.
Mrs Monneypenny's column in FT today is beautifully written. A favorite columnist of mine, Mrs Monneypenny's got the knack of writing in a rather short column about several seemingly-different things together in a coherent (and funny) way. This week's one is a good example of this.
Go to Norköpping (pronounced like nor-shopping) by a 1.5-hour train ride for a seminar of the interdisciplinary climate change research project where Japanese urban hydrologists happen to give a talk.
Over lunch after the seminar, talk to a meteorologist on the weather data and to a biologist on the crop yield predication model.
Go back to Stockholm by X2000, Sweden's high-speed train. With my Macbook Air, I try to write a referee report on board. But I have to stop doing it because the X2000 train shakes a lot, making me almost puke.
Work on the climate project.
Receive a request for refereeing. The current backlog: 3 reports.
Spring appears to have arrived in Stockholm today, with temperature rising above 10 degrees celcius for the first time since early November of the last year.
Work on the climate project. What I essentially does this week is to learn biology on how one can predict crop yields based on weather.
Continue the discussion with the PhD student on our possible joint research over lunch.
Attend a seminar.
Work on the climate project.
Have a chat with a PhD student on our possible joint research.
Attend a seminar.
Read a paper for which I've been asked to write a referee report (not the one for which I got a request last week).
